Summary
Labour is typically the largest expense for service businesses — often 30–50% of revenue. Yet most small businesses don't forecast it. They look backwards at what they spent last week, not forward at what next week will cost. With a few weeks of time tracking data, you can change that.
Why forecasting matters
- Budget vs actual: Know before the week starts roughly what your wage bill will be.
- Seasonal planning: Spot trends (e.g., December is always 40% higher) and plan staffing accordingly.
- Profit protection: If labour cost creeps above your target percentage of revenue, you catch it early — not 3 months later in the BAS.
Step 1: Establish your baseline
Open Payments → Dashboard and look at the last 4 weeks. Note your average weekly gross payroll. This is your current baseline. Also note the "vs Last Week" trend — is it stable, growing, or declining?
Step 2: Identify patterns
Look at your roster. Are certain days consistently heavier (more staff, longer shifts)? Are weekends costing significantly more due to penalty rates? The Variance view (Payments → Checker → Variance) shows which staff cost more or less than last week and why.
Step 3: Set a target percentage
A common rule of thumb:
- Cafés: Labour at 30–35% of revenue
- Restaurants: Labour at 28–32% of revenue
- Retail: Labour at 15–20% of revenue
- Trades/services: Labour at 25–30% of revenue
If your weekly gross payroll is $5,000 and your weekly revenue is $15,000, your labour percentage is 33%. That's healthy for a café, tight for a restaurant.
Step 4: Forecast next week
Use your published roster to estimate next week's cost:
- Count the total rostered hours per staff member.
- Multiply by their rate (visible in Payments → By Shop).
- Add penalty rate surcharges for weekend/holiday shifts.
- Add super (11.5% from July 2025).
NestedClock's Cost by Shop chart on the Payments dashboard gives you a visual of where your money is going — use it to spot which location is over-weight.
Step 5: Review and adjust weekly
Every Friday (or your pay-cycle close day):
- Compare actual hours vs rostered hours.
- Check if overtime was triggered unexpectedly.
- Identify staff who worked significantly more or less than planned.
- Adjust next week's roster to stay within budget.
The businesses that grow sustainably are the ones that know their numbers before the bill arrives. Your time tracking data already has everything you need — you just need to use it proactively.
Start your free trial and see your labour costs broken down by shop, staff, and week.